Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 0.957010 1.114810 1.290026 1.498953 1.741275 2.013478 2.342491
2025-01-19 0.673089 0.875127 1.124535 1.454853 1.880795 2.411618 3.123779
2025-01-26 0.546315 0.767692 1.062195 1.482218 2.065750 2.847946 3.976985
2025-02-02 0.484079 0.724554 1.064473 1.579259 2.338908 3.418908 5.072591
2025-02-09 0.424992 0.671928 1.039826 1.626722 2.539159 3.904018 6.103095
2025-02-16 0.373017 0.619442 1.004289 1.647480 2.695181 4.335136 7.100350
2025-02-23 0.327119 0.568184 0.961223 1.646639 2.811652 4.712223 8.052354
2025-03-02 0.286977 0.519707 0.914626 1.631035 2.897706 5.044760 8.965443
2025-03-09 0.256235 0.482520 0.881121 1.631375 3.007637 5.425256 10.000563
2025-03-16 0.221829 0.433555 0.820000 1.573325 3.004398 5.604925 10.695975
2025-03-23 0.213996 0.432954 0.846014 1.677864 3.310215 6.371128 12.554563
2025-03-30 0.189331 0.396181 0.799152 1.636825 3.333316 6.613114 13.443962
2025-04-06 0.165919 0.359261 0.748401 1.583724 3.330389 6.813078 14.293709
2025-04-13 0.145953 0.326805 0.702621 1.535138 3.331247 7.022332 15.193331
2025-04-20 0.135599 0.313449 0.694412 1.563920 3.496323 7.582797 16.891258
2025-04-27 0.132357 0.315365 0.718842 1.666243 3.831889 8.537617 19.550988
2025-05-04 0.125156 0.307168 0.719909 1.716290 4.057340 9.280619 21.832316
2025-05-11 0.116624 0.294603 0.709416 1.738177 4.220769 9.904173 23.916448
2025-05-18 0.107492 0.279268 0.690446 1.737290 4.329985 10.415577 25.797804
2025-05-25 0.098373 0.262687 0.666383 1.720837 4.399396 10.841528 27.525083
2025-06-01 0.091119 0.249888 0.649947 1.721195 4.510096 11.377787 29.586643
2025-06-08 0.081431 0.229305 0.611376 1.659986 4.457243 11.508426 30.644258
2025-06-15 0.080888 0.233462 0.636995 1.770214 4.862453 12.828506 34.920283